As you already know Punxsutawney Phil or "punksatony phil" or "puxatony phil" is the one of most popular individual from Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. On February 2nd of each year, The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club officials bring Phil come out of his burrow to predict do we have to face 6 more weeks of winter or not. If the sky is clear and shiny, then probably Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow and will go back to his burrow indicating six more weeks of winter, otherwise early arrival of spring. Watch out below space to see did phil see his shadow in 2017 results and, the Punxsutawney Phil 2017 video of weather prognostication is/will become available as it happen.
Keep in mind the chances of phil being true are only 39% as per record, but who cares when you get the reason to do a get together, laugh, music, food, and everything that happens in a festive environment. Checkout live coverage video and, Groundhog day Punxsutawney Phil shadow results and prediction.
Did Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow:According to tradition, if the groundhog Punsutawney Phil sees his shadow, that means six more weeks of winter will happen. If Phil does not sees his shadow for any reason(because it is clear, for example), then spring will come soon.
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Preamble / IntroductionWho does not remember Bill Murray waking up again and again at 6 am on February 2 with the voices of Cher and Sonny Bono singing on the radio machaconamente I got you babe ? Perhaps the comedy directed by Harold Ramis in 1993 is not everyone's taste, because what some shoot them loose laughter is the same as exasperating others. But what nobody can deny it is that Groundhog Day got coining an expression in popular culture: since then the Groundhog Day means any irritating situation that is repeated cyclically without being able to avoid it .
Ramis tape was also the best tourist brochure for a Pennsylvania town whose name one can remember with difficulty, Punxsutawney , and for his stellar festival that gave title to the film in its original version. And all though he was actually shot in Woodstock, Illinois. But today Punxsutawney and Groundhog Day seem inseparable. The basic thing to know about this tradition is this: on February 2, Phil Whistler appears from his abode after waking from his hibernation. If the sky is covered, Phil will stay to enjoy the outdoors and spring will come soon. But if, on the contrary, the groundhog meets its shadow, what will happen in case of sunny day, will retire to its burrow for a new nap and the winter will last six more weeks.
Every year up to 40,000 people come to Punxsutawney to witness the brief performance of Phil, an animal whose caregivers, members of the elite Inner Circle of the Groundhog Club, refuse to specify what number makes all the Phils have been, considering that The groundhogs have a life expectancy of six years. For his fans, there is only and there has always been a Phil, the only one able to predict the time with a hundred percent of hits.
Punxsutawney Phil CredibilityWhat do the experts think of this alleged infallibility? In 2000 Paul Sommers , a veteran professor of economics at Middlebury College in Vermont, decided to test the skills of Phil. Sommers explains to this newspaper, the idea was born of a developed economy statistical work by a group of students, which eventually led to a study published in 2001 in the Journal of the Mathematical Association of the USA, The College Mathematics Journal . The objective was to confront Phil's predictions with reality over 50 years, from 1950 to 1999. To standardize the results of the forecasts, Sommers and his students statistically analyzed the averages of maximum and minimum temperatures and snowfall in The six weeks before and after February 2, comparing the results with the predictions of the marmot.
Sommers confesses that the result surprised him. "Our results suggest that Phil's long-term weather forecasts are much better than some would think," the researchers wrote. Specifically, the groundhog achieved a 70.4% success. It is true that the animal has only predicted an early spring ten times, and that in all these cases has gone wrong except in 1997, when he hit the minimum temperatures, but not with the maximum or snow. The study also finds that Phil is more accurate when the Democrats rule, with 81.8% hits at minimum temperatures and 68.2% at peak, than when a Republican president occupies the White House with 63.0 and 70.4% respectively. Nevertheless, the authors clarify that "the shadow of Phil does not reveal a clear political inclination". Of all of this, Sommers reveals to this newspaper what his conclusion is: "If I had to bet on Phil's forecasts or those of a professional macroeconomist working in Washington DC, my money would go to Phil."
For its part, the National Center for Climate Data (NCDC) Agency Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration US (NOAA) has done its own analysis , leading to a very different conclusion: "Forecasts Phil are, on average, Incorrect. The groundhog has not shown any talent in predicting the arrival of spring, especially in recent years, "concludes the NCDC. The discrepancy with Sommers results is that this body has analyzed the data from 1988 to 2014 and has applied them throughout the country, not just the weather in Punxsutawney. Perhaps Phil's long-distance vision is resenting his age, which would be logical considering his (always suspected) 128 years of life.
OriginNobody will be surprised that the criterion of a marmot is not the best tool of meteorological prediction. Even for science, predicting the arrival of spring on February 2 is somewhat risky. The origin of this date seems to go back to the Celtic calendar. He explains in his book Groundhog Day (2003) folklorist and professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania Don Yoder , Gaelic festival of Imbolc was celebrated in early February, halfway between the solstice and equinox, when the day begins To gain ground at night. Druidic and neo - pagan cults such as Wicca still maintain the celebration of Imbolc , the Celtic spring.
Yoder suggests that another root of Groundhog Day is buried in the Roman tradition of purification festival of spring called Februa , from which the name of the month February has arrived. These Christian festivities superimposed their own transforming the Roman concept in the Purification of the Virgin , alluding to the Jewish custom of postpartum before submitting the baby in the synagogue quarantine. 40 days after 24th December met on February 2, the date on which the presentation is held in the temple decorated with candles, origin of the feast of the Virgen de la Candelaria and in some European countries is known as Candlemas.
In rural areas the date is associated with the weather forecast, which was reflected in sayings like this Scotsman: "If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there will be two winters in the year." The idea relates the sunny weather of the second day of February with the forecast of a long winter. According to El Pais says Professor of Anthropology at Kutztown University of Pennsylvania William Donner , "the Pennsylvania Germans had a saying about the need for that at this point farmers still had to keep half of their winter food; This was very important for an agricultural community. " In various parts of Europe, bears, badgers and sea urchins resurfaced from their winter rest, and it was believed that the animals returned frightened to their hiding places if they saw their shadow on the ground.
German immigrants settled in Pennsylvania, replacing the hedgehog, nonexistent in America, by the Canadian marmot (Marmota monax). The earliest written reference found by Yoder appears in 1840, and in 1887 Phil offered his first prognosis to the inhabitants of Punxsutawney. But neither this locality nor the Germanic Pennsylvania have the exclusivity; Tradition came to be so popular that today it extends from Texas to Alaska passing through Canada, with a legion of Phil's counterparts such as Poor Richard, Wiarton Willie, General Beauregard Lee, Queen Charlotte, Gus, Fred, Chuckles or Sir Thomas Hastings , Not to mention Ridge Lea Larry, a dissected groundhog at New York State University (SUNY) in Buffalo, or Tennessee Groundhog, a guy dressed as a marmot riding a motorcycle in the town of Silver Point.
Groundhog lodgesBut beyond all this fanfare, motivated by spectacle rather than tradition, the truth is that the element of the Punxsutawney Phil or others groundhogs continues to be an important symbol within the communities that bring this tradition to America. From German Dutch to Pennsylvania, we know its most picturesque exponents, the Amish and Mennonites, who reject the use of technology in whole or in part, and according to Donner have little or no link to Groundhog Day. But the bulk of the German community in that state belongs to the German Reformed Church and to the Lutheran branch. "This group is much more likely to use technology and now it looks like any other," says the anthropologist.
It is precisely the latter that make Groundhog Day an important cultural festival that transcends the anecdote of meteorological prediction. As detailed in the anthropologist in his forthcoming book Making Tradition: The Versammlinge and Pennsylvania German Identity, the publisher Pennsylvania University Press published later this year, around the tradition of Groundhog came to be created up to 18 lodges, most which are still active and meet annually on February 2 in a Versammlinge, a party celebrating Pennsylvania German identity and which is only allowed to speak the dialect of the region, the Pennsylvanian Deutsche.
"It's a night of fun and legacy," Donner sums up. The members of the lodge swear allegiance to the flag, eat, sing, pray, represent small satirical works and utter speeches, and do not miss the prediction of the Groundhog; all in language Deutsche . "My vision is that these events pay tribute to the legacy of pre-industrial and pre-scientific times," says the anthropologist, adding: "In 2017, I doubt anyone really believes in the prediction of the Groundhog." But according to Donner, they are traditions that, like so many others, are diluted little by little in the global soup. "Most attendees were born in the 1930s, because it is rare to find someone born after World War II that speaks Deitsch fluently. That is why attendance at these meetings is in decline."